Question 13 Marks
A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls. One of the two bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the bag wich is found to be red Find the probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag.
Answer
View full question & answer→Event $E_1$ : selection of ball from first bag
Event $E_2$ : selection of ball from second bag
Event A : second ball is red ball
$\begin{aligned} \therefore & P\left(E_1 \mid A\right)=\frac{P\left(E_1\right) \cdot P\left(A \mid E_1\right)}{P(A)} \text { (Bayes' rule) } \\ & P\left(E_1\right)=\frac{1}{2} ; P\left(E_2\right)=\frac{1}{2} \\ & P\left(A \mid E_1\right)=\frac{{ }^4 C_1}{{ }^8 C_1}=\frac{4}{8}=\frac{1}{2} \\ & P\left(A \mid E_2\right)=\frac{{ }^2 C_1}{{ }^8 C_1}=\frac{2}{8}=\frac{1}{4} \\ \therefore & P(A)=P\left(E_1\right) \cdot P\left(A \mid E_1\right)+P\left(E_2\right) \cdot P\left(A \mid E_2\right)\end{aligned}$
$\begin{array}{l}=\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{4} \\ =\frac{1}{4}+\frac{1}{8} \\ =\frac{3}{8}\end{array}$
Probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag which is found to be red,
$\begin{aligned}
\therefore P\left(E_1 \mid A\right) & =\frac{P\left(A \mid E_1\right) \cdot P\left(E_1\right)}{P(A)} \\
& =\frac{\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2}}{\frac{3}{8}} \\
& =\frac{2}{3}
\end{aligned}$
Event $E_2$ : selection of ball from second bag
Event A : second ball is red ball
$\begin{aligned} \therefore & P\left(E_1 \mid A\right)=\frac{P\left(E_1\right) \cdot P\left(A \mid E_1\right)}{P(A)} \text { (Bayes' rule) } \\ & P\left(E_1\right)=\frac{1}{2} ; P\left(E_2\right)=\frac{1}{2} \\ & P\left(A \mid E_1\right)=\frac{{ }^4 C_1}{{ }^8 C_1}=\frac{4}{8}=\frac{1}{2} \\ & P\left(A \mid E_2\right)=\frac{{ }^2 C_1}{{ }^8 C_1}=\frac{2}{8}=\frac{1}{4} \\ \therefore & P(A)=P\left(E_1\right) \cdot P\left(A \mid E_1\right)+P\left(E_2\right) \cdot P\left(A \mid E_2\right)\end{aligned}$
$\begin{array}{l}=\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{4} \\ =\frac{1}{4}+\frac{1}{8} \\ =\frac{3}{8}\end{array}$
Probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag which is found to be red,
$\begin{aligned}
\therefore P\left(E_1 \mid A\right) & =\frac{P\left(A \mid E_1\right) \cdot P\left(E_1\right)}{P(A)} \\
& =\frac{\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2}}{\frac{3}{8}} \\
& =\frac{2}{3}
\end{aligned}$
