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TIME SERIES — Statistics STD 12 Commerce — Question

Gujarat BoardEnglish MediumSTD 12 CommerceStatisticsTIME SERIES3 Marks
Question
Write a short note on seasonal component.
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Answer

Seasonal component represent the changes taking place in the variable quantity of time Series at fixed period of time like three or four months say winter, summer, monsoon.
  • This fluctuations are short term in nature and its effect is seen according to the seasons.
  • The seasonal component affects the time series as follows :
  • $(1)$ Effect of natural factors :
    • The variations in the values of the time series occur in association With the seasons or weather fluctuations.
    • Such variations occur at almost regular intervals.
    • For example :Increase in demand for woolen clothes in the winter, increase in demand of cold drinks and ice, increase in demand for umbrellas and raincoats in the monsoon.
  • $(2)$ Effect of man-made factors :
    • The variations occurring regularly in less than one year period are caused by the festival customs in the society, habits of people.
    • For example : Increase in the sale of readymade garments and footwears during Diwali, increase in the purchase of ornaments during marriage season, increase customers in movie theater and restaurant.
    • From the study of seasonal fluctuation traders and manufacturers of seasonal goods plan for periodical stocks to take care of the demand of such goods.

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